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Real estate data shows continued (slight) decline in home prices. Homebuilder predicts more homes in $300k range

The July data on the local housing market is in, and it shows signs of a continued cooldown in housing sales.

While housing includes many components – apartments for rent, homeless people, and more- homes for sale are a highly visible piece of the market.

The latest data, from the Intermountain Multiple Listing Service, shows a slight decline in the median price in both Ada and Canyon counties. The median in Ada stood at $589,990 in July, down less than 1% from $592,090 in June. In Canyon, the median is $441,995, also off less than a percent from $444,990 in June.

The median price is the “halfway point” of all homes sold in the month – meaning half the homes sold for more and half sold for less.

Chart by Visualizer

The prices are not diving by any stretch, particularly in Ada County. In May, the median peaked at $602,250. In the two months since, the price has fallen just two percent. In Canyon, the peak came in April, and with three months in the rearview mirror, the price is off 7% from the top.

Also, for the first time since September 2020, the median price in Canyon County actually slipped behind the national median price as of June. (National data lags behind local data by several weeks.)

The median price data point reflects a bit of a lag because of the way homes are sold. Once a deal is in place, it can take as long as 30 or 60 days for the house to formally close. More than 2,000 homes are pending a final sale, according to IMLS.

Inventory up

The inventory level across the two counties also continued to increase in July. As of the last day of the month, a total of 3,773 homes were available for sale. That’s the most houses on the market since before the COVID-19 pandemic began to impact Idaho. It’s also night and day from January 2021 when seasonal trends and the overall frenzy of the market meant only 429 homes were for sale as of the last day of that month.

Chart by Visualizer

Data from national brokerage Redfin shows that far fewer homes are selling than in the past three calendar years. The firm said 250 homes sold in the metro area from June 27th through July 24th. Last year, 385 homes sold in the comparable period — and in 2020, nearly 500 homes sold.

Redfin’s data also shows that more than one in five homes for sale has seen sellers drop the list price from where they started. It’s a dramatic change from 2020 when almost no homes had price drops. Redfin said the Boise metro led the nation in that metric in June.

Back in the $300,000s?

Corey Barton poses for a picture for the Wall Street Journal. Screenshot:

Boise’s housing market caught a lot of attention on the way up — and continues to now that the picture is changing. The Wall Street Journal did a long feature on the market that didn’t include much BoiseDev readers didn’t already know — but brought it to a national audience.

Homebuilder Corey Barton is quoted in the piece as saying the housing market went “too far.”

“It’s slowly going back to the old Boise,” he told the WSJ, telling the paper he expects to return to pre-pandemic pricing. “We’ve somewhat run out of the people that were really serious about moving,” because of COVID-19. “We’re going to have to safely be back in the $300,000s.”

Currently, CBH Homes’ website shows 47 homes for sale under $400,000, with many in Canyon County, Kuna and even Emmett. But the homebuilder offers many more for $400,000 or more – 407.

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Don Day - BoiseDev Editor & Founder
Don Day - BoiseDev Editor & Founder
Don is the founder and publisher of BoiseDev. He is a National Edward R. Murrow Award winner and a Stanford University John S. Knight Fellow. Contact him at [email protected].

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